Decoding Peak 2025: Key Retail Trends from October 1st – November 11th

Nov 25, 2025

Aaron O'Brien
Senior Data & Analytics Product Manager

The opening weeks of the 2025 peak retail season (October 1st – November 11th) have painted a clear picture across our global retail benchmarks: while traffic is up, the conversion landscape is shifting. Our data, spanning global retail clients on the Partnerize and Ascend™ platforms, reveals that shoppers are now prioritizing higher-value purchases, a trend being driven by specific regions and partner types.

Global Trends: Less Conversion, Higher Spend

Globally, the retail vertical saw a 4% increase in revenue year-over-year (YoY) for the peak period leading up to Singles’ Day. This revenue growth was achieved despite a 6% decline in conversions YoY and an 8% drop in conversion rate.

The primary engine for this growth was a significant 11% higher average order value (AOV), coupled with a 3% increase in clicks YoY. In short, shoppers were less likely to purchase, but when they did, they spent significantly more.

Mobile’s role in this shift is crucial: 63% of total revenue came from mobile, an increase of 6% YoY.

Regional Drivers: The Americas (AMR) Lead the Way

Regional performance reveals distinct market behaviors:

• AMR retail was the strongest region, achieving a 5% Revenue YoY increase for the peak period so far—the highest of the three featured regions and the only one in growth. This growth was powered by a 10% increase in AOV, now at $163. AMR’s contribution was notably dominant on October 10th, driving the sole global revenue increase for that key peak date (+14% vs. the global +6%).
• EMEA retail saw the most substantial volatility, with Clicks surging 31% YoY, but a subsequent 38% drop in conversion rate led to a 9% decline in revenue.
• APAC retail had the highest overall AOV at $181 (a 6% increase YoY), but its 8% decline in conversions led to a 2% overall revenue decline.

Partner Performance: Influencers & BNPL Steal Share

The allocation of partnership revenue highlights a strengthening focus on upper-funnel and flexible payment methods:

• Influencers saw the biggest gain in revenue share globally, increasing +1.9% YoY. This gain, combined with increased mobile revenue, suggests a strengthening mobile shopping journey.
• Comparison Shopping Services (CSS) saw the biggest loss of share globally, decreasing by -1.5% YoY.
• Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) partners are proving to be highly effective, ranking highest for AOV at $156.19 and second best for percentage of new to file (NTF) at 50.46%, indicating strong shopper acquisition and high spending.

Singles’ Day (11/11) saw a significant over-index, standing at +6% YoY revenue (compared to the +4% overall peak average). Similar to the overall trend, this was driven by shoppers spending 17% more per shopper despite a drop in conversions. The day also saw a large jump in mobile revenue share, reaching 61%.

So far, the narrative for peak 2025 is clear: the path to purchase requires more traffic and delivers fewer conversions, but the conversions that do happen are far more valuable. Brands must now prioritize partners—especially Influencers and BNPL—that drive high-value traffic and high AOV, rather than focusing solely on conversion rate optimization.